A Comprehensive Guide to Novel Coronavirus’ Impact on London Restaurants

Earlier this month, London restaurants formally entered their post-pandemic “new normal,” by which is meant — the various protections, tax cuts, and devices designed to afford businesses relief through a time of immense disruption came to an end or changed.

In short, April 2022 was the month when the most things changed in the most significant way since March 2020 when the arrival of COVID-19 first caused the government to close down hospitality.

Restaurant insolvencies rose by 20 percent in the last quarter of 2021, as the full impact of COVID-19 continues to be delayed by rent protections. Insolvencies rose to 354 from 296, according to City AM, as the financial pain caused by the coronavirus pandemic outlasts the restrictions it put in place.

The government’s Commercial Rent (Coronavirus) Bill will come in from 25 March, the same date which the current moratorium on rent arrears expires. While any debts accrued in the “protected period” — which for England is 20 March 2020 to 21 June 2021 — are ring-fenced and must be referred by to an arbitrator by both landlord and tenant, landlords will no longer be barred from taking action on unpaid rent from outside of that period. This will necessarily lead to increased financial pressure on many restaurants.

As of 21 February, the U.K. government has published its “Living with Covid” plan, in which it has set a timeline for all COVID-19 restrictions in England to be scrapped by 1 April. The plan has been welcomed by U.K. Hospitality, the trade body representing restaurants and bars in the U.K., though its publication has led to renewed calls for ministers to continue supporting those businesses hit “first, longest, and hardest by the pandemic.”

The “Living with Covid plan” practically affects restaurant workers and their employers in the following ways.

A rise in value added tax (VAT) has joined the end of furlough, as changes intended to signal the recovery of the economy from COVID-19 in fact put further pressure on workers and businesses alike. The U.K. VAT rate has risen from five percent to 12.5 percent, and will — under current plans from Chancellor Rishi Sunak — rise again to its pre-pandemic rate of 20 percent come April 2022.

VAT isn’t something most diners think about a lot, even though it appears on nearly every bill, and numerous restaurants have testified that the cut was essential to their making it through 2020 without having to close entirely or make drastic redundancies. Across three London restaurants — Joké Bakare’s Chishuru, in Brixton Village; Shuko Oda and John Devitt’s Koya, which at that time had two restaurants; and large group JKS, behind Trishna, Gymkhana, Bao, Lyle’s, and others — the cut saved them at minimum £37,000, £300,000, and £3.7 million respectively.

The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, more colloquially known as furlough, is over. First introduced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak in March 2020 — but not before, according to U.K. Hospitality estimates, the restaurant sector laid off nearly quarter of a million workers — the scheme in which the government paid 80, then 70 , then 60 percent of people’s wages was initially envisaged as lasting until May 2020. Then it got extended to June 2020. And now, 15 months later, after supporting around nine million workers at its peak, it is finished. And while the number of hospitality workers protected by the scheme dropped precipitously through spring and summer 2021, there were still around 260,000 at the end of July.

Hospitality workers persistently made up some of the highest proportions of staff on furlough and jobs lost throughout 2020 and early 2021, but owing to its exclusion of tips and tronc from its wage calculations, they were simultaneously some of the most and least supported employees.

The Covid winter plan, which lays out the future of Covid-19 restrictions and measures, and the possibility of coronavirus lockdown in England, has very little in it for restaurants, which tells its own story: Barring catastrophe, restaurants’ uncertainty — at least, that which is directly caused by the pandemic — is over.

In an announcement alongside Sir Patrick Vallance and professor Chris Whitty, today, 14 September, prime minister Boris Johnson will outline both Covid “Plan A” and Covid “Plan B”; the former continuing many measures already in place, and the latter kept in reserve, comprising measures “which would only be enacted if the data suggests further measures are necessary to protect the NHS.” Those measures do not include local nor national lockdowns, because, “Thanks to the success of the vaccination programme, it should be possible to handle a further resurgence with less damaging measures than the lockdowns and economic and social restrictions deployed in the past.”

A new report from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) details the impact of COVID-19 on the hospitality sector: restaurants, pubs, cafes, bars, and some accommodation services like hotels and campsites. The picture it paints is simultaneously bleak and encouraging: The novel coronavirus pandemic hit hospitality as hard as any sector in England. Recovery is beginning, but the deferred crisis of Brexit and the fresh pressure of test, trace, and isolate rules occasioned by step four of England’s lockdown roadmap are both beginning to bite.

Below are the key findings from the ONS report into the impact of COVID-19 on restaurants and their workers:

On the eve of England’s almost complete decoupling from coronavirus restrictions, the government is urging restaurants and pubs to help prevent the transmission of COVID-19 by sticking to table service and in-premises social distancing measures, despite the legal expiration of restrictions from Monday 19 July. Yesterday, 15 July, ministers also announced the launch of a new “Hospitality Strategy” which it says is focused “on the ‘Three Rs’ of reopening, recovery and resilience” in the long-term.

While the industry trade lobby U.K. Hospitality says the new strategy recognises the “unique and valuable contribution the sector’s pubs, restaurants, hotels, nightclubs and other venues make to the UK’s economic and social wellbeing,” this is a crisis that is ongoing, evidenced by ministers’ encouraging of businesses to retain safety precautions; the restaurant and pub industries are some way away from being able to declare themselves “post-pandemic.”

Coronavirus restrictions will be lifted when England moves to “step four” of its lockdown reopening roadmap next Monday 19 July, meaning the end of social distancing restrictions and limits on household mixing in restaurants and pubs. Health secretary Sajid Javid confirmed the change in the House of Commons today, 12 July.

Prime minister Boris Johnson later gave a press conference announcing the change, urging that “this pandemic is not over.” His version of “cautious but irreversible” included recommending face masks in crowded areas and “with people you don’t normally meet,” which would include restaurants and pubs when not seated, as has previously been required in law. Professor Chris Whitty then laid out how both the four-week delay to this step in the roadmap, and the caution at step four, are subjects of overwhelming consensus in the medical and scientific community.

COVID-19 lockdown restrictions will not be eased in England before 19 July, new health secretary Sajid Javid has told the House of Commons today, 28 June. While the coronavirus lockdown roadmap’s pausing of step four — including the lifting of all social distancing restrictions — allowed for the possibility of reopening on 5 July, Javid said that “we see no reason to go beyond the 19 July, because no date we choose comes with no risk of COVID.”

For restaurants, while step three — the reopening of dining rooms indoors on 17 May — was the most important coronavirus roadmap date, current restrictions still limit their ability to trade indoors and, in the case of pubs serving food, provide service at the bar.

While London’s restaurants reopen their dining rooms for the first time in 152 days, they are at stage three of a four-stage coronavirus lockdown roadmap.

Stage four has now been delayed from 21 June to 19 July, because of the B.1.617.2 / Delta variant, first detected in India and, it appears, able to spread to the U.K. But what does this new coronavirus variant mean for restaurants, their workers, and diners?

London restaurants have been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis — interrupted trade, job losses, and debt headaches. Now, 14 months and three lockdowns since Prime Minister Boris Johnson first ordered Britons to stay at home, it still remains unclear just how many restaurants have fallen victim to the pandemic. Over the next month, as restaurants reopen their dining rooms, the reality and number of those closures should become clearer.

Whether their dining rooms made social distancing impossible, lockdowns saw money run out, or making rent deals with landlords has proved insurmountable, here is a running list of London restaurants that we know have closed during the coronavirus crisis.

England will progress to the next stage of its coronavirus lockdown reopening “roadmap” on 17 May, when restaurants, pubs, cafes, and bars reopen for indoor service. Here’s what that means for dining out in the city:

London restaurants are braced for a delay to the final lifting of coronavirus restrictions, scheduled for 21 June, as The Times has reported that the introduction of the fourth and final stage of the government’s so-called reopening “roadmap” could be held off until the first week of July, or even the 21st of that month.

The fortnightly delay was reported after what it referred to as a “downbeat briefing” from the country’s top medics and scientists, chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, and the chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, who delivered the latest, “fairly grim” coronavirus data to ministers in recent days.

The key questions faced by London restaurants in lockdown and its aftermath, answered with time frames for government decisions and the stated hopes of business owners and trade bodies.

This piece will constantly updated over the coming weeks as more information is made available.

One hundred and fifty-two days after London restaurants learned of their nightmare before Christmas — when government restrictions closed all non-essential businesses in England — dining rooms reopen today, 17 May.

It marks the end of a month of outdoor dining and four months of takeaway and delivery from restaurants and staff which have become accustomed to uncertainty, novelty, and adaptation. The return of indoor dining — with restrictions on social distancing still in place — comes at a time when April showers in May aren’t giving way to the spring. Those who have been shivering on makeshift terraces for the past five weeks will welcome some shelter and a little heating.

“Certainly Brexit will affect us. But until we fully reopen, it is very difficult to tell.” Wait and see: That’s the message from La Poule au Pot. Like every other enterprise in the restaurant world, the French bistro in Belgravia had no idea that the end of the Brexit transition would come in the middle of a global pandemic. While sourcing ingredients for its devotedly Francophile menu has been difficult, that concern has been almost immaterial to putting together the reduced, COVID-induced takeout menu that has taken it through successive lockdowns. It’s just one small but significant demonstration of how the two crises have become intertwined for the restaurant industry.

After the referendum in 2016, restaurants, pubs, cafes, and bars, and their suppliers expected 2020 to be a watershed moment — a sudden disruption of staffing, ingredient costs, and supply chains that would reshape what it meant to operate a restaurant in the city for years to come. That disruption duly arrived, but it didn’t come from Brexit. It came from a global public health crisis. It came from COVID-19.

Updated 15:00 29 April 2020: With a link to Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove’s statement and reaction from the British Beer and Pub Association (BBPA).

Today, 29 April, the government has confirmed — again — that customers visiting pubs and restaurants will not have to show “Covid status certificates” or so-called “vaccine passports” when dining rooms reopen on Monday 17 May. The certificates would indicate proof of vaccination, a recent test, or presence of antibodies from a previous infection.

Harry Morgan, a north London institution famous for its salt beef sandwiches and chicken soup, will permanently close tonight after 78 years of trading in St. John’s Wood.

According to manager Antonio Franco — who has run the New York City-style Jewish deli and restaurant for the last decade — it is an unwillingness on behalf of the landlord Trophaeum Advisers to negotiate a rent settlement over monies owed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic that will see the business close tonight, 27 April, with all members of staff made redundant as of Friday 30 April.

It’s just over one week since restaurants and pubs reopened for outdoor dining in London. They have been largely blessed with sunshine, and clement, if not blazing temperatures; cold nights tempering warm evenings is a fitting representation of the mood in the capital’s dining terraces, pavements, and other outdoor spaces.

Because while this reopening feels more hopeful than that of winter, there is still much to do. Though outdoor opening suits some of the city’s best places to eat, many restaurants cannot open at all until May; there is no resolution on rent in sight just yet; just as kitchen porters, cooks, chefs, waiters, and sommeliers get to grips with familiar territory after months away, diners must regain their own muscle memory.

As outdoor reopening offers some hope to London’s hospitality community, new Covid-19 unemployment figures are a sobering reminder of the impact of the past twelve months. According to figures from the Office of National Statistics, (ONS) of 813,000 “paid employees” removed from payrolls between March 2020 and 2021, 355,000 were in the hospitality sector — almost half.

This is a familiar story. In November 2020, figures within the same parameters saw hospitality account for 300,000 losses out of 819,000; by August 2020, at least 22,000 restaurant workers had lost jobs, compared to the hospitality sector losing just over 11,000 in the whole of 2019. Despite furlough, grants, and loan schemes, the government’s financial response to coronavirus’ impact on restaurants and pubs has not sufficiently protected their workers. Furlough “cliff edges” have left businesses to make terminal decisions that might have been avoided with more notice, while the exclusion of tronc — an already contested tip-sharing system — from furlough calculations has left many workers on much less than the feted “80 percent” of wages they were promised.